Kazakhstan's new constitution cementing president's grip on power approved in a referendum

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A new constitution that strengthens President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s grip on power in Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest country, has won overwhelming approval in a referendum, according to preliminary results released Monday.

The country's Central Election Commission announced that over 87% of respondents in Sunday's vote supported the constitutional changes that merge the Kazakhstani parliament’s two chambers into one and give the president the right to appoint key government officials with parliament’s approval, including the restoration of the ​post of vice president. The turnout exceeded 73%.

The constitutional changes also envisage the creation of a new body, the People’s Council, alongside parliament, empowered to initiate legislation and referendums. Its members will be appointed entirely by the president.

The second constitutional change in four years was initiated by Tokayev, and some observers say it could pave the way for him to retain power after his term expires.

The 72-year-old Tokayev, a former Soviet official and Kazakhstani diplomat who previously served at the U.N., is currently limited to one seven-year term until 2029. Analysts believe Tokayev could use the referendum to reset presidential term limits. Leaders of several former Soviet republics, including Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, have previously used new or amended constitutions to revise statutory term limits.

The new constitution also stipulates that marriage will no longer be a union of two people, but rather a union of a man and a woman. Analysts say this provision was introduced in the new constitution as a follow-up to a law banning what authorities view as “propaganda” of LGBTQ+ relations.

Tokayev, who has maintained a delicate balance between Moscow and the West since the imposition of sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine, explains the constitutional changes as a response to the need to make quick decisions in a rapidly changing world.

“This step is of exceptional importance, especially in the current period when the geopolitical situation is unstable and challenges and threats to national security are becoming increasingly tangible,” Tokayev said last week.

The opposition in Kazakhstan is not represented in government structures and, in the month since the referendum was announced, has been unable to significantly influence public sentiment.

The vote took place at a difficult time for Kazakhstan, where inflation reached 11.7% in February and tax increases have fueled public discontent.

Analysts say economic problems could trigger a new wave of protests akin to nationwide unrest in 2022, triggered by hikes in fuel prices, in which dozens of protesters and police were killed — something Tokayev is trying to contain by consolidating power in his own hands.