Trump promises 'bigger majorities' for GOP even as midterm warning signs flash for his party

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WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump predicted Wednesday that his party will have larger congressional majorities after November’s midterm elections, even as political warning signs that have privately worried some Republicans for months are starting to flash red.

While Trump said the U.S. “is winning so big” in the war in Iran, it is keeping gas prices high, travelers are facing unprecedented airport security wait times and Americans remain concerned about steep costs of living.

The latest sign of trouble came this week from Trump's own backyard as Democrat Emily Gregory won a Florida special election to flip a state legislative district that encompasses his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach.

Against that backdrop, Trump worked to rally the GOP on Wednesday night when he addressed the National Republican Congressional Committee's annual fundraising dinner at Washington’s Union Station.

Before Trump even began speaking, House Speaker Mike Johnson signaled that the party is going to rise or fall with Trump in November, even presenting him with what he called “the very first America First award.”

Trump acknowledged the long odds, repeatedly noting that incumbent presidents almost always lose seats in Congress during the midterms, “even if it's a successful presidency.” Still, he brushed off concerns, saying he would campaign for every Republican candidate.

“From now until November, we’re going to fight,” he said. “We’ll have bigger majorities in the House and Senate than we do today.”

The gathering comes as polling shows most Americans believe the U.S. military action against Iran has gone too far and voters are more and more worried about Trump's failure to address affordability issues. That, coupled with a weakening labor market and worries about renewed inflation, means Republicans could face a string of glaring liabilities as they try to maintain control of both the House and Senate.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a moderate Republican from Alaska, said her constituents are asking about the path forward in Iran and whether Trump will deploy troops there.

“There’s a lot that people want to know, so whether it’s how it’s being communicated in the media, or how it’s being communicated here in the Congress, I think it’s lacking right now,” Murkowski said.

Trump has so far mostly responded by continuing to point to record-high stock markets and low gas prices that evaporated after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28. He’s also insisted that the current economic jolt will be temporary, and that he can bring the conflict to a close quickly — all of which defy the more complicated and nuanced political and economic realities.

Gas prices were $3.12 a gallon when Democratic President Joe Biden left office and were just under $3 before the U.S. and Israel launched the war in Iran. Today’s average is $3.98, according to motorist group AAA.

Higher prices at the pump tend to cascade through the economy, raising costs at the grocery store, in the service sector and in most other areas — meaning the worst of the political fallout might come in the months closer to Election Day.

Trump has suggested the war is worth some short-term political jitters.

“I can’t say that ‘Gee, I don’t want to have any impact on oil prices for three or four weeks, or two months, and we’re going to let Iran have a nuclear weapon.’”

During his speech to Republicans Wednesday night, he acknowledged the impact on the U.S. economy but said he felt the attack was necessary. “We had to cut out the cancer," he said. "The cancer was Iran with a nuclear weapon, and we’ve cut it out.”

In the meantime, about 59% of Americans say the U.S. military strikes in Iran have been excessive, while 45% are “extremely” or “very” concerned about being able to afford gas in the next few months. That's according to a poll released Wednesday by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

That is up from 30% in an AP-NORC poll conducted shortly after Trump won reelection with promises that he would improve the economy and lower the cost of living.

Inflation is expected to rise with the jump in gas prices and longer-term interest rates have risen, pushing up the cost of mortgage loans, auto loans and business borrowing. That comes as employers cut 92,000 jobs last month.

Trump blamed Americans' sour opinion of the war on media coverage that doesn't echo his claim that Iran has been militarily destroyed. Iran has maintained its ability to strike targets in the region and effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, snarling the global oil trade. Meanwhile, some of Trump's own war objectives remain undefined or unfulfilled.

“You know, if you listen to the news, you think we’re losing a war in Iran where we’re decimating the other side,” Trump said.

In another political headache, the partial government shutdown has dragged on for five weeks, lately sparking chaos at some of the nation's top airports.

The White House blames congressional Democrats who have blocked funding for the Department of Homeland Security as they press for restrictions on enhanced immigration enforcement operations. But efforts to broker a deal have stalled, and his administration insists it won't back down on immigration.

“The American people are tired of the chaos. They’re tired of the excuses. And they’re tired of watching Washington fail,” said Rep. Mark Alford, a Missouri Republican who was among the party’s lawmakers who held a news conference Tuesday at Washington’s Ronald Reagan National Airport to blame Democrats for the shutdown.

Trump didn't directly address the status of negotiations to fund the department but also laid the blame on Democrats for an impasse that has forced airport security and other employees to work without paychecks: “They don't want to settle. They want chaos.”

Rep. Nick LaLota, R-N.Y., said voters in his Long Island-based district are concerned about affordability and safety. But he also said the war in Iran means “the president is right to think about America’s long-term security.”

On whether Iran policy will be an anchor for Republicans, LaLota encouraged taking a wait-and-see approach leading up to November, and said any fallout could depend whether the U.S. has stopped Iran’s nuclear ambitions and reopened the Strait of Hormuz.

“I think this could be a thing that bolster conservatives’ approach to national security,” he said.

Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, similarly said it was too early to jump to political conclusions.

“If we’re still at this stage in the war in the fall, then I’ll talk to you about that,” Hudson said. “But the president says it’s going to be short, so I believe him. I think he did the right thing by doing what he did.”

As for higher gas prices, Hudson said, “Voters are smart enough to know this is a temporary increase.”

Speaker Johnson he said he trusts Trump's assurances that Iran-related economic disruptions won't last. He said Wednesday’s dinner raised $37 million, bolstering record fundraising for the House Republican campaign committee. Trump echoed that theme, shouting out some of the GOP's top House candidates and boasting about the money raised. He said Republicans have a “hot party.”

“I think we’re going to have a great election," Trump said.

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Cooper reported from Phoenix. Associated Press writers Kevin Freking and Stephen Groves contributed to this report.