Populist poised for strong showing in Portugal’s presidential election, reflecting a European shift

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LISBON, Portugal (AP) — Exit polls in Portugal’s presidential election Sunday suggested a populist party leader was among the frontrunners in a tight race led by a center-left Socialist candidate, with a runoff ballot next month appearing likely.

The indications of a second-place showing by André Ventura, leader of the Chega (Enough) party, could bring another political breakthrough for Europe’s growing far-right parties, as he could face off against Socialist António José Seguro in a Feb. 8 decider between the two top candidates.

Chega’s surge in public support made it the second-largest party in Portugal’s parliament last year, just six years after it was founded.

Seguro, the Socialist, was set to collect most votes, followed by Ventura and conservative João Cotrim Figueiredo just behind him, according to the exit polls by the country’s three main broadcasters. Official results were expected late Sunday or early Monday.

Nine other candidates ran in a record field, but none came close to the more than 50% required for a first-round victory, the exit polls indicated.

The winner will replace President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who has served the limit of two five-year terms.

One of Ventura’s main targets has been what he calls excessive immigration, as foreign workers have become more conspicuous in Portugal in recent years. “Portugal is ours,” he says.

During the election campaign, Ventura put up billboards across the country saying, “This isn’t Bangladesh” and “Immigrants shouldn’t be allowed to live on welfare.”

Such blatant anti-immigrant sentiment expressed in public was unthinkable in Portugal just a few years ago.

His sudden and growing presence in Portuguese politics has snatched support from the country’s two main parties that have alternated in power for the past half-century: the center-right Social Democratic Party, currently in government, and the center-left Socialist Party.

Only one woman is among the candidates. Portugal has never had a female or non-white head of state.

Last May, Portugal held its third general election in three years in its worst spell of political instability for decades. Steadying the ship is a key challenge for the next president.

Ventura, the populist leader, has sought to turn immigration into a campaign issue, but voters appear more concerned about a housing crisis and the cost of living.

A law permitting euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide in Portugal that parliament approved in 2022, but has been held up by constitutional objections, will likely land on the president’s desk for approval.

In Portugal, the president is largely a figurehead with no executive power. Mostly, the head of state aims to stand above the political fray, mediating disputes and defusing tensions.

However, the president is an influential voice and possesses some powerful tools, being able to veto legislation from parliament, although the veto can be overturned. The head of state also possesses what in Portuguese political jargon is called an “atomic bomb” — the power to dissolve parliament and call early elections.

Political events in Portugal have little bearing on the overall direction of the European Union. It has one of the bloc’s smallest economies, and its armed forces are of a modest size.

A runoff between the top two finishers on Sunday will be held on Feb. 8.

That will decide who serves a five-year term at the president’s riverside “pink palace” in Lisbon.