NBA West playoff capsules: Thunder-Grizzlies, Rockets-Warriors, Lakers-Wolves, Nuggets-Clippers

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Capsules on the Western Conference first-round series:

Season series: Thunder, 4-0.

Story line: Oklahoma City had the best record in the NBA this season and its reward is a Round 1 matchup against a 48-win Memphis team that has a dynamic guard in Ja Morant and nothing to lose after firing coach Taylor Jenkins late in the season and needing to survive the play-in just to grab the No. 8 spot. Yes, the Thunder did sweep the Grizzlies this season (by an average of 18.8 points) and have won nine consecutive head-to-head meetings. That doesn’t mean this series will be easy, even for a team led by MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Key matchup: It’s not an individual one. It’s the Grizzlies against OKC’s total defense. Memphis shot only 41% and averaged 106.3 points against the Thunder in the four regular-season meetings. Their numbers against all other teams were better in both categories. Put simply, the Grizzlies have to find a way to do more to have a chance in this series.

Prediction: Thunder in 5.

Season series: Warriors, 3-2 (includes one NBA Cup game).

Story line: Experience vs. inexperience. Let's put this into perspective. The entirety of the Rockets' roster, combined, has 2,380 playoff points and 110 playoff starts. Golden State's Stephen Curry — by himself — has 3,966 points in 141 playoff starts, and that doesn't even add Jimmy Butler (2,534 playoff points, 116 playoff starts) and Draymond Green (1,825 playoff points, 140 starts) to the total. But these Rockets are confident, aggressive and hang their hat on defense. And they do have home-court advantage, which they surely think counts for something.

Key matchup: Curry vs. Amen Thompson. In the teams' most recent meeting on April 6 in San Francisco, Thompson led an astounding defensive job on Curry — holding the greatest shooter ever to a 1-for-10 night. Expecting more 1-for-10s would be a mistake, but if the Rockets can slow Curry they'll have a real chance.

Prediction: Warriors in 6.

Season series: Tied, 2-2.

Story line: LeBron James and Luka Doncic, together in the playoffs for the first time. Will it be enough? The Lakers won the title in 2020 and have won only two series since then, getting ousted by Denver in 2023 and 2024 — and now having to face the team that went into Denver and won a Game 7 to end the Nuggets' reign last season. The Timberwolves will rely on Anthony Edwards as always, and he's shown in previous playoff runs (and last summer with USA Basketball) that he isn't afraid of the moment.

Key matchup: The Timberwolves' size vs. the 1-2 punch of James and Doncic. Do the Lakers have an answer for the waves of bigs — Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, Naz Reid, etc. — inside? No. Do the Timberwolves have a way to stop both James and Doncic? Of course not, because nobody does. The team that exploits its clear advantages the most wins the series.

Prediction: Lakers in 7.

Season series: Tied, 2-2.

Story line: The Clippers roll into the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the NBA, winning their last eight games and 18 of their final 21. Denver won its final three after firing coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth to match the Clippers at 50-32 and got home-court advantage via a tiebreaker. Neither had it last time the teams met in the playoffs: Denver overcame a 3-1 deficit to beat the Clippers in 2020 at the Walt Disney World resort.

Key matchup: Nikola Jokic vs. Ivica Zubac. No team has an advantage at center against the Nuggets, with Jokic averaging 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists to become the third player to average a triple-double for a season. But the Clippers would have one against many other teams after Zubac's excellent season in which he averaged 16.8 points and 12.6 boards, leading the NBA in total rebounds.

Prediction: Clippers in 6.

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AP NBA: https://apnews.com/NBA